Opinion & analysis by Allar Luks, Product Manager at OddsMarket

The major domestic leagues are finished, and we have a back-to-back Champions League winner. Under normal circumstances, that would mean a quiet period until mid-August — but not this year.

This time, in the European time zone, we’ll all have the familiar experience of explaining at home why we were still up at 4 a.m. — watching Iran play New Zealand. The 2026 World Cup will be the first edition with more teams, more matches, and an additional knockout round.

As this article focuses on the Top Goalscorer market, these changes are particularly important, with several nuances that could significantly impact the value of the odds available at the time.

Some key factors and changes to consider when placing your bets:

More teams also means more potentially weaker sides in the group stage — and therefore more high-scoring games. Why does that matter? Roughly 70% of the goals scored by previous Golden Boot winners came in the group stage.

(Harry Kane against Panama in 2018 is a good example.) In 2014, winner James Rodríguez scored half of his goals in the group stage as well.

• In Qatar, Mbappé won the award despite scoring three goals in the final — which is not the typical pattern.
• 64% of Golden Boot winners have reached the final, which suggests the winner is usually from one of the tournament favourites.
• Penalty takers have a clear edge, especially since the introduction of VAR.
• I learned that the hard way during the last World Cup. It’s also worth looking at teams with “easier” fixtures in their first two group games, as star players are often rested in the third match of the group stage.
• Historically, you need around 6–7 goals to win the Golden Boot, with some exceptions.
• The tournament will be played across three countries, meaning different climates, long travel distances, and certain teams may be better suited to these conditions than others.

To track pricing and patterns, I created an average line for the Top Scorer market using data from multiple major odds feeds in the OddsMarket monitoring dashboard.

Instead of checking odds one by one across different bookmakers, this provides a much clearer overall picture and allows me to filter out providers I don’t have a high level of confidence in.

Keep in mind that odds will move over time, and these are the prices at the time of writing.

Kylian Mbappé odds around 6.5–7.0 available.

Main favourite to win the award. He would be the first player to win it back-to-back in the history of the World Cup final tournament. Kylian plays for a team that is among the favourites to win the tournament – two finals in the last two World Cups, and it would be a big upset if they weren’t playing in the final once again at the very least.

There is a lot of attacking talent in the France team, which could either damage Mbappé’s goal tally or, on the other hand, take some attention away from him, as defenders will need to track his teammates as well. Michael Olise had a huge season at Bayern Munich. Bradley Barcola, Ousmane Dembélé, and Désiré Doué carried PSG to the Champions League final. Add Mateta and Cherki to the mix, and this team is, in attack, the most talented in my opinion. There is no room for rest or mistakes for opposing defenders.

Mbappé will be the main penalty taker and is elite at converting them. I’m pretty confident he will not be rested during the group phase, which could be the case, for example, for Kane and some other top candidates to win the trophy.

He is in great shape this season, with 38 goals for Real Madrid in all competitions. He has scored 12 goals in 14 games at World Cup final tournaments, and across all official international tournaments he averages 0.72 goals per 90 minutes.

Not to question Mbappé’s motivation for this tournament, but his club season was a disappointment in terms of trophies – a strong performance here would boost his Ballon d’Or chances as well.

Senegal, Iraq, and Norway are the opponents in the group phase, and I expect France to score at least 7 goals in this group.

He takes penalties, plays for a strong team that should go all the way to the final, is in great goalscoring form, has strong support from talented players around him, posts excellent numbers for the national team, and has plenty of experience in major tournaments. There is strong goalscoring potential already in the group phase.

The only thing I don’t like about this bet is that some other top candidates have the potential for a very high-scoring group stage.

Mbappé is my go-to guy to win the award back-to-back. It’s a boring choice in a sense, as he is the favourite along with Harry Kane, but sometimes being pragmatic rather than emotional is the way to go.

Harry Kane: Odds around 7.0–8.0.

Penalty taker for England, coming off a huge season at Bayern Munich, scoring 60+ goals in all competitions if I counted correctly. There were a lot of them, and he has been breaking all kinds of records since joining Bayern Munich.

He finished the season with two hat-tricks and plays for a team expected to go far in the tournament as well. England is the third favourite to win the competition, behind only Spain and France.

England also has a decent group for scoring plenty of goals in the group stage, facing Panama (the last time Kane played them, he scored three goals), Croatia, and Ghana.

So why don’t I rate Kane’s odds as highly as Mbappé’s?

Kane had a huge club season with a lot of goals and assists, but he also played a lot of games and accumulated heavy minutes throughout the season. The average age of a Golden Boot winner is comfortably under 30 – that’s a fact – and Kane is 32.

The competition is demanding, and this time there are more games and rounds, as well as more travel over longer distances.

England has three games in 10 days at different locations and, unfortunately for those backing Kane, the game against Panama is the third group-stage match.

On paper, it’s the easiest game and has the highest goalscoring potential. If England take maximum points from their first two group games, I’m pretty sure Kane will get a rest.

The other games in the group don’t look like potential goal fests, and as I said before, group-stage goals have historically been very important in the race for the Golden Boot.

I also don’t rate England’s attacking “providers” as highly as Bayern Munich’s, given their current form. The Arsenal players have had a season with a heavy workload, while Palmer and Foden were left out this time, which is a decision I’m not going to argue with.

All in all, Mbappé has much greater potential in my opinion than the narrow gap in the odds between them suggests.

Rest of the more prominent favourites

Lionel Messi:

That’s a hunch, but I think Messi’s goals will come from set pieces and penalties. He will be influential for sure, but this tournament should be the one where Messi passes the torch to Álvarez and Martínez.

I’m not convinced at all that his minutes won’t be restricted in order to keep him fresh for as long as possible during this demanding tournament.

The game against Jordan is their third group-stage match, and I suspect Argentina will have all the points required to qualify by then. There will be no point in tiring their talisman in that game.

Erling Haaland:

One of the purest goalscoring threats in modern football? Yes. 16 goals in 8 games during the qualification phase and 20+ goals in the English Premier League? Yes. Does he have the same level of support and service in the Norwegian national team that he has at Manchester City? No!

Besides, Norway has a very tough group with France, Senegal, and Iraq.

They are the second favourites to qualify from the group, but to be honest, I’m not entirely convinced. Either way, they are not expected to go too far in the tournament, and goals may be hard to come by in the group stage as well.

Lamine Yamal:

This is an easy fold, as Yamal is expected to miss at least the first two games, and the odds on him are already rising. We can see that the odds are already reflecting this information — moving from around 15–16 to 20 and higher.

Cristiano Ronaldo:

1 goal in the last two major international tournaments, likely minutes restrictions, and no potentially high-scoring group-stage game for me.

Ousmane Dembélé:

Plays alongside Mbappé in the French team, so it’s hard for me to see any value in his odds.

Not a strong club season either, due to missing games here and there, and I’m not convinced about his physical condition at the moment.

Besides, he hasn’t proven himself to be a reliable goalscorer in major international tournaments, and I’m not convinced he will get the same minutes as Mbappé.

And, well, Mbappé has 56 goals for the France national team vs. 23 goals for the rest of the attacking players.

Vinícius and Raphinha from the Brazil team:

Both Brazilians have odds between 25 and 30 widely available. Brazil… fourth or fifth favourites to lift the trophy, their top players not even in the Golden Boot discussion and barely expected to reach the semi-finals. How times have changed.

Brazil have traditionally performed well when the competition has been held on this side of the world. They have the players to perform, and they have a group-stage game against a big outsider as their second match, giving them a chance to push for goals before qualification is secured.

What makes me cautious, though, is the situation around the team. A new coach took over in May, bringing a new playing style, and at least for me, it’s not clear who will step up on the big stage this time.

I prefer Raphinha over Vini based on two key factors:

• Raphinha is on penalties.
• Vini has scored only 8 goals for Brazil so far.

Why I’m not a fan of Raphinha to win the Golden Boot:

• New coach and system.
• I see Vini and Raphinha potentially acting as providers for the main central striker.
• One of Rayan, Igor Thiago, or Cunha will likely take a decent share of the goals. Rayan and Thiago had strong seasons in the English Premier League, while Cunha has shown flashes of the “old” Cunha in recent games for Manchester United.

Mikel Oyarzabal:

Odds are dropping on him since Yamal will be out for the first games, and Oyarzabal is expected to be on penalties and the main striker for Spain.

He had a strong qualification campaign, but at the last Euros he was a shadow of himself with a limited contribution. There is also strong competition within the squad for the “main man” role.

Instead, my outsider pick would be: Lautaro Martínez from the Argentina team, with odds around 25.00.

Argentina are not the main favourites to win the trophy, but are expected to finish in the top four, and that is the sweet spot for me to take an outside chance on Martínez.

Expected to reach at least the semi-finals, Lautaro comes into the tournament after a strong season and having returned from injury late in the campaign.

He has already played a few games since returning, so he is not under any minutes restrictions at the start of the tournament and has also had some recent rest.

He is in his prime and was the top scorer at the Copa América, which was played in the USA.

Julian Álvarez could hurt his chances and is a genuine goalscoring threat as well, but he missed games through injury at the end of the season. If he misses a game or two in the group stage, Lautaro will be in a very good position.

One negative is that Argentina face Jordan in their final group-stage game, where Lautaro could potentially be rested. However, I believe Messi would be the one rested instead if Argentina have already secured qualification by that point.

So, let the best one win — let’s cross our fingers for an entertaining World Cup with lots of goals and emotions, as that’s what we live for.